The political landscape for the 2024 U.S. presidential election has seen a notable shift in the past 24 hours, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of winning improving significantly according to major bookmakers. This change comes in the wake of growing concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and mental fitness, particularly following his performance in the first presidential debate against Donald Trump on June 27.
Leading betting sites such as Bet 365, William Hill, and Sky Bet have all adjusted their odds in Harris’ favor. For instance, her odds improved from 16/1 to 7/1 on Bet 365, representing an increase in implied probability from 5.9% to 12.5%. Similar improvements were seen across other bookmakers.
The debate about Biden’s fitness for office intensified after the recent presidential debate, where he appeared to struggle at times to articulate his thoughts clearly. This has led to increased speculation about the Democratic Party’s best path forward for the 2024 election.
A CNN poll conducted shortly after the debate revealed that Kamala Harris might perform better than Biden in a hypothetical matchup against Trump. The poll showed Trump leading Biden by six points (49% to 43%), but only leading Harris by two points (47% to 45%). Additionally, Harris showed particular strength among women and independent voters compared to Biden.
The same poll indicated that 75% of registered voters believe the Democrats would have a better chance of winning in 2024 with a candidate other than Biden.
Despite these concerns, the Biden campaign has defended the President’s performance. Even Kamala Harris herself acknowledged at a recent fundraiser that while the debate might not have been Biden’s “finest hour,” it demonstrated clear differences in character between the candidates.