Picking the top-ranked team before the NCAA tournament kicks off might seem like a wise move, leading your Bracket Challenge Game to the summit. After all, in theory, selecting the No. 1 team from the final AP Top 25 Poll should position that team as a strong contender for NCAA tournament victory, right?
However, the reality tells a different story. This scenario has unfolded just twice since 2001 and a mere five times since the tournament expanded to include 64 teams in 1985. One of those rare occurrences took place in 2024, when UConn secured back-to-back victories and claimed the top spot in the final rankings before the tournament.
Analyzing data from the past 13 NCAA tournaments, drawn from millions of brackets, reveals that the team finishing as the No. 1 in the AP poll before the tournament has been chosen to emerge victorious in roughly a quarter of brackets.
Yet, only two out of those 12 teams—Kentucky in 2012 and UConn in 2024—actually lifted the championship trophy. Notably, the 2012 Kentucky team wasn’t a runaway favorite among bracket-pickers, with only 19.57 percent selecting them to win it all.
The 2012 Wildcats, led by Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Doron Lamb, among others, dominated their six tournament games by an average of 11.83 points, securing the program’s eighth national title. This victory marked the first time since Duke in 2001—a team spearheaded by All-Americans Shane Battier and Jay Williams—that a team ranked No. 1 in the final AP poll clinched the national championship.
While selecting the AP No. 1 team as the tournament winner isn’t a sure bet, it’s notably safer than predicting their defeat in the opening round. Nevertheless, around 2 percent of the millions of brackets analyzed over the last 12 NCAA tournaments made this bold choice—anticipating the No. 1 team in the final AP poll to fall to a No. 16 seed.
A friendly reminder underscores the rarity of such upsets, with only TWO No. 16 seeds in NCAA men’s basketball tournament history managing to topple a No. 1 seed: UMBC over Virginia in 2018 and FDU over Purdue in 2023.
In 2018, Virginia, finishing the season atop the AP poll, encountered this fate, as the Cavaliers were predicted to be upset in the first round in 2.06 percent of brackets—a record-high for the examined period. The Cavaliers’ stunning loss to the Ramblers by a 20-point margin marked the earliest exit for an AP No. 1 in the past 10 NCAA tournaments.
Similarly, in 2019, AP No. 1 Duke faced skepticism, with 1.46 percent of brackets forecasting a first-round loss to No. 16 seed North Dakota State. However, the Blue Devils overcame this challenge with an 85-62 victory over the Bison, initiating their journey to the Elite Eight, where they eventually succumbed to Michigan State 68-67.
Remarkably, despite the early skepticism, Duke was the top pick in 39.12 percent of brackets to claim the national championship, showcasing overwhelming support from bracket-pickers that year.
